BTC Price Prediction: Will Institutional Demand Offset Geopolitical Risks in June 2025?

Factors Influencing BTC’s Price

U.S. Crypto Holdings Could Reach $2 Trillion as Institutional Interest Grows

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicts U.S. investors may hold up to $2 trillion in cryptocurrency assets, a projection coinciding with Bitcoin''s surge past $110,000. The forecast reflects deepening institutional engagement, with pension funds, hedge funds, and banks increasingly allocating capital to digital assets.

Bessent emphasizes the maturation of crypto infrastructure—secure custody solutions, regulated exchanges, and refined investment products—as key drivers of mainstream adoption. "This isn''t speculative froth," his analysis suggests, "but structural evolution in global finance." Stablecoins feature prominently in his outlook, potentially generating $2 trillion in demand for U.S. Treasury instruments.

The remarks follow Bitcoin''s latest price milestone, underscoring growing market confidence. Institutional participation now mirrors the trajectory of traditional asset classes, with crypto becoming a standard portfolio component rather than a niche alternative.

Corporate Bitcoin Adoption Accelerates as Firms Seek Safe Havens

Corporate interest in Bitcoin is surging as companies increasingly view it as a hedge against inflation and currency risks. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan describes Bitcoin as the "best horse in the race" for preserving corporate wealth, predicting this trend will expand further. Publicly traded firms now hold $57 billion in Bitcoin, a figure poised to grow as traditional safe havens like Treasuries lose appeal amid fiscal deficits and monetary expansion.

CFOs are reevaluating cash management strategies, with Bitcoin''s appreciating stock correlation adding boardroom appeal. The asset''s dual role as both a treasury reserve and equity booster underscores its widening institutional acceptance.

Bitcoin Options Skew Slides as Middle East Tensions Fuel Oil Rally

Bitcoin''s short-term options skew plunged during Asian trading hours as geopolitical instability triggered a flight to downside protection. The seven-day skew measuring call/put premium on Deribit-listed contracts collapsed to -3.84%, its lowest level since mid-April, as traders scrambled for hedges against potential downside.

WTI crude''s 6% surge to $74.30/barrel - the highest since February - compounded crypto market jitters. The oil rally followed Israeli airstrikes on Iran, with Tehran promising retaliation. This inflationary impulse rattled risk assets, sending BTC below its 50-day moving average at $103,150 after briefly testing $110,000 earlier in the week.

Market technicians now watch whether Bitcoin can hold this key technical level. February''s breakdown below the 50-day SMA preceded a 22% correction, creating anxiety among bulls. The options market shows growing skepticism, with 30-day and 60-day skews also turning negative as put buying accelerates.

Bitcoin Liquidity Shifts to Non-KYC Exchanges as US Reserves Decline

Bitcoin''s surge to a record high above $111,000 in late May masked a significant market shift: offshore exchanges now hold more BTC than their US-regulated counterparts. Data from CryptoQuant reveals a 9.1% drop in the KYC-to-non-KYC exchange reserve ratio since December, settling at 1.33 by June 11.

The migration of liquidity from regulated platforms persists despite the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. For the first time in years, offshore venues dominate BTC holdings, with the US/offshore reserve ratio turning negative in January and reaching -0.22 by mid-June. This trend remained consistent throughout Bitcoin''s Q1 rally.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: June 2025 and Beyond

Bitcoin recently traded around $105,000, after briefly touching a record high near $112,000 in late May 2025. The cryptocurrency has since retreated slightly, with the total crypto market cap hovering at $3.3 trillion. Bitcoin remains the dominant asset, accounting for a significant share of the market.

Recent price action shows Bitcoin fluctuating between $103,000 and $108,000 in early June, settling near $105,000 by June 7. A slight uptick followed positive US job data, but outflows from Bitcoin investment funds tempered gains. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $132 million through June 6, despite BlackRock''s iShares BTC Trust attracting $81 million in inflows.

ETF flows continue to drive market sentiment, with Fidelity''s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund seeing $168 million in outflows. Regulatory developments, including pro-crypto legislation like the proposed Bitcoin Act and the SEC''s evolving stance, are bolstering confidence. Europe''s MiCA framework adds further clarity to the regulatory landscape.

Centralized Entities Now Hold 31% of Bitcoin''s Circulating Supply

Institutional and governmental control of Bitcoin has reached a historic milestone. A Gemini-Glassnode report reveals centralized entities—including sovereign treasuries, public companies, ETFs, and exchanges—now custody 6.1 million BTC, valued at $668 billion. This represents 30.9% of circulating supply, marking a 924% accumulation surge over the past decade.

The trend coincides with Bitcoin''s price ascent from sub-$1,000 to six figures, reflecting a fundamental shift in perception. Volatility-prone speculation is giving way to institutional conviction, with these players treating BTC as a strategic reserve asset. Market behavior shows stabilizing patterns as whale movements increasingly offset retail-driven swings.

Exchange wallets dominate holdings, but the growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries—like MicroStrategy''s $14 billion stash—proves particularly telling. Governments have also entered the fray, with the U.S. and China collectively seizing over 400,000 BTC through enforcement actions.

Bitcoin’s Cycle Top: Will 2025 or 2026 Mark the Peak?

Bitcoin faces critical technical tests as analysts debate whether its next cycle peak will arrive in September 2025 or March 2026. The cryptocurrency currently hovers near decisive Fibonacci support levels at $104,180 and $102,435—breaches below these could signal further downside.

A decisive breakout above $100,000 would likely trigger a robust rally, with traders eyeing successive targets at $109,787, $113,071, and $115,966. Market observers note Bitcoin''s position within a falling wedge formation, emphasizing that any sustained upward move requires confirmation through heavy trading volume.

The 200-week simple moving average continues to serve as a key cyclical indicator, with historical patterns suggesting the current bull run may extend into late 2025 or early 2026. As institutional interest grows and technical patterns develop, Bitcoin''s next major price inflection point remains the focal point of crypto markets.

Bitcoin Selling Pressure to Fade After $130K, Says Bitwise CEO

Bitcoin may be approaching a pivotal shift in market dynamics as Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicts a significant reduction in selling pressure once the cryptocurrency surpasses the $130,000 to $150,000 range. Horsley asserts that long-term holders, currently taking profits at near all-time highs, will cease selling altogether at these levels, potentially creating unprecedented scarcity on the open market.

The flagship cryptocurrency has maintained strength near record territory, trading around $108,700—just shy of its May peak of $111,970. A 6% monthly gain brings the psychologically crucial $100,000 threshold into focus. Early adopters capitalizing on multi-year gains presently drive profit-taking activity, but Horsley anticipates this trend will diminish as Bitcoin establishes new price paradigms.

GameStop Expands Convertible Notes Offering to $2.25B Amid Bitcoin Strategy Speculation

GameStop Corp. has increased its convertible senior notes offering from $1.75 billion to $2.25 billion, with an additional $450 million option for purchasers. The move could potentially raise $2.68 billion by the closing date of June 17, 2025. Funds are earmarked for strategic investments and acquisitions, aligning with the company''s long-term objectives.

Market observers speculate whether GameStop is positioning for further Bitcoin accumulation, given its disclosed holdings of 4,710 BTC acquired in Q1 2025. The gaming retailer appears to be betting on Bitcoin''s long-term growth, supported by evolving U.S. crypto regulations. This trend mirrors broader corporate interest in cryptocurrency as a strategic asset.

Is BTC a good investment?

Olivia from BTCC presents a balanced view:

Key considerations:

• Technical Outlook: Needs to reclaim 20-day MA for bullish confirmation
• Macro Factors: Institutional adoption vs. regulatory shifts
• Cycle Timing: Historical patterns suggest 2025-2026 could be cycle peak years

Past performance is not indicative of future results.